# Inventory Reorder Forecast

> Days-of-cover reorder brief from your sales and stock exports — and it flags the SKUs whose velocity a stockout quietly suppressed. Never orders.

- Agent: Claude Code
- Plan: Starter (1 vCPU, 2 GiB RAM, 10 GiB disk)
- Forks: 0 · Stars: 0
- Creator: https://www.jurniti.com/creator-ca0ff2
- Tags: claude-code, e-commerce, ecommerce, forecasting, inventory, planning, shopify
- Requires config (you provide): ANTHROPIC_API_KEY
- Skills: inventory-forecast

**To fork:** open https://www.jurniti.com/templates/inventory-reorder-forecast and use the Fork action — it starts a Stripe Checkout for a new VM seeded with this template's persist disk (same flat plan price, no fork fee).

## README

# "47 in stock" is not a number you can act on

Is that three weeks of cover or three months? Your supplier needs two weeks'
notice either way. Working it out properly means a spreadsheet per SKU — so it
gets done for the top five and guessed for everything else.

Those guesses cause both the stockouts and the dead cash.

## Days of cover, with the arithmetic

`days_of_cover = on_hand ÷ daily_velocity`, and the reorder trigger is
`cover ≤ lead_time + safety`. Every line prints its inputs, so you can check a
recommendation instead of trusting it.

Four verdicts per SKU: **REORDER NOW**, **REORDER SOON**, **OVERSTOCKED** (cash
tied up, not a reorder), or a data verdict.

## The trap that makes naive forecasts wrong

**A stockout corrupts its own velocity.** If an SKU hit zero during the window,
it couldn't sell what it didn't have — so its measured velocity is *suppressed*,
and reordering off that number under-orders your best seller. Again.

Those SKUs come back flagged `STOCKOUT_SUPPRESSED`, with the true velocity
declared unknown-and-higher rather than quietly used.

Same for divergence: when 28-day and 7-day velocity differ by more than 50%, you
get **both** numbers and a flag. That gap is either seasonality or a stockout,
and those demand opposite actions — so the agent won't pick one for you.

Under 14 days of history it returns `INSUFFICIENT_HISTORY`. It will not
extrapolate a trend from one week.

## Read Flagged before the reorder list

It's the section that tells you which numbers are lying to you.

## What you supply

Your own Claude Code login — and two exports. Sales-by-SKU and inventory
on-hand (Shopify: Analytics → Reports → Sales by product; Inventory → Export),
dropped into `~/inventory/exports/`.

Then your supplier lead time and safety days in the rules file. Leave those blank
and every SKU returns a data verdict instead of a quantity — deliberately, since
cover means nothing without a threshold to compare it against.

No store API key. Exports are the input, which is exactly why nothing can place
an order.

## The guard is a file, not a promise

`~/inventory/policy/FORECAST-RULES.md` carries `NEVER_AUTOORDER`, the cover
formula, the stockout rule and your numbers. The skill reads it before every run.

## Where this stops

It reads exports and drafts a brief. It does not place purchase orders, contact
suppliers, or change stock levels.

It won't claim seasonality — it can't see last year in a 28-day export — and it
won't compute margin unless your export carries cost.

Verified on build: the skill, the working tree, the `NEVER_AUTOORDER` guard, the
cover formula and both data traps are present on a fresh fork. Running it on your
own exports is yours to do.