# Dropshipping Viability Brief

> Computes contribution, breakeven CPA and the conversion rate you'd need before any product opinion — and refuses a verdict without a real CPC.

- Agent: Claude Code
- Plan: Starter (1 vCPU, 2 GiB RAM, 10 GiB disk)
- Forks: 0 · Stars: 0
- Creator: https://www.jurniti.com/creator-ca0ff2
- Tags: claude-code, dropshipping, e-commerce, ecommerce, product-research, unit-economics
- Requires config (you provide): ANTHROPIC_API_KEY
- Skills: dropshipping-viability

**To fork:** open https://www.jurniti.com/templates/dropshipping-viability-brief and use the Fork action — it starts a Stripe Checkout for a new VM seeded with this template's persist disk (same flat plan price, no fork fee).

## README

# The product was never the problem. The arithmetic was.

A "winning products" list said it was trending. You bought inventory access, built the
store, ran ads — and found the product couldn't buy its own traffic. Contribution was
$9; the category's CPA is $14.

Nobody did that sum before you spent the money.

## Money before product opinion

```
contribution   = price − (COGS + shipping + payment fee + expected refund cost)
breakeven CPA  = contribution
required CVR   = CPC ÷ contribution
```

The brief opens with the honest headline:

> **You need a 4.1% conversion rate at $1.20 CPC to break even.**

That tells you more than any product take. Every input is shown, so you can change one
and re-reason.

## No CPC, no verdict

Leave out a realistic CPC for the category and it returns `[CPC NEEDED]` and
**refuses to give a verdict.** A viability call without an ad cost isn't a viability
call — paid traffic is the entire distribution model.

Same for the refund rate. Long shipping windows and cheap goods produce refunds, so
it's a **line item in the contribution maths**, not an afterthought — and if you don't
supply one it says `[REFUND RATE NEEDED]` rather than assuming a flattering number.

## Four killers, in order

1. **Shipping time** — a 20+ day window drives refunds and chargebacks regardless of
   product quality. Checked first, because it's the one people discount.
2. **Contribution under realistic CPA** — the product can't buy its own traffic.
   Fatal, and it's arithmetic rather than judgement.
3. **Creative saturation** — many sellers on the same angle means rising CPMs. It
   reports observed sameness, never an inferred CPM number.
4. **Restricted or liability-prone category** — electrical, ingestible, child-facing,
   medical-adjacent, certification-bound. Flagged to you as a legal question, not
   judged.

The verdict names *which* killer decided it.

## What you supply

Your own Claude Code login, plus candidates in `~/dropship/candidates/` — a product
idea or public URL, supplier price, shipping window, target retail price, and a
realistic CPC.

## Where this stops

It researches and briefs. It does not contact suppliers, place orders, create
listings, or launch ads.

It won't tell you units sold per month — public pages never expose it, and any tool
quoting one is inferring it. It can't see ad platforms, so it won't say a product is
trending. And it won't rule on whether a category is legal for you to sell.

Verified on build: the skill, the working tree, the `NEVER_SOURCE_OR_ORDER` guard, the
contribution formulas, all four killers and the refund line item are present on a
fresh fork. Running it on your own candidates is yours to do.